China 5: Chinese AI tracks U.S. forces, China’s models dominate global AI traffic, Beijing congratulates Myanmar junta
Chinese AI tracks U.S. military in Iran, China’s models drive half of global AI traffic, Beijing endorses Myanmar's junta leader, Cuba leans on Chinese clean energy, & reframing rights as stability
1. Chinese AI Firms Expose U.S. Military Movements in Iran
What Happened: Several Chinese companies with ties to the PLA have launched AI tools designed to monitor U.S. military movements in and around Iran. One of the Chinese companies, Hangzhou-based MizarVision, reportedly used satellite imagery, flight transponder data, and ship tracking information processed through AI to track U.S. carrier group movements and shifts in military posture ahead of Iranian operations. In response, the U.S. government requested on April 5 that private U.S. companies restrict access to satellite imagery from sensitive areas and delay commercial image releases to minimize intelligence risks.
Why It Matters: The case highlights both the opportunities and risks posed by publicly available commercial satellite imagery and AI analytics. Private companies can now leverage this data to generate near-real-time military intelligence, sharing it with private and public clients. While the U.S. government regulates sensitive imagery exports, foreign firms can still exploit private sector data — presenting policymakers with the difficult challenge of balancing the benefits of open satellite imagery against the national security risks of foreign companies sharing that data with foreign governments.
By Sheng-Wen Cheng, Research Intern, Center for China Analysis, and Lyle Morris, Senior Fellow on Foreign Policy and National Security (@LyleJMorris).
Learn More: Read “PLA Watch,” a monthly newsletter centered on delivering insights into China’s military affairs on the Center for China Analysis’s Substack.
2. Chinese AI Models Now Drive Nearly Half the World’s AI Traffic
What Happened: According to OpenRouter, a platform that aggregates access across major AI models, total usage for the week of March 30 to April 5 reached 27 trillion tokens. Chinese models accounted for 12.96 trillion, exceeding U.S. models (3.03 trillion) for the fifth consecutive week. The six most-used models on the platform were all Chinese, led by Alibaba’s Qwen3.6 Plus and Xiaomi’s MiMo-V2-Pro.
Why It Matters: The data highlights where China is currently strongest: open-weight AI. Chinese models are competitive on cost, speed, and practical performance, driving broad adoption among developers worldwide, including many U.S. startups, for production and agent-based use. At the same time, this is not the full picture. Closed-source frontier models from U.S. firms continue to lead in raw capability and enterprise spending. Critics also note that OpenRouter skews toward price-sensitive developers and certain use cases, and that some Chinese models game the system by engaging in "bench-maxing," though these caveats do not negate the broader trend in adoption.
By Shengyu Wang, Research Assistant, and Lizzi C. Lee, Fellow on Chinese Economy, Center for China Analysis (@wstv_lizzi)
Learn More: Read “Cinematic Sovereignty: How China’s New Generation of AI Video Models Could Reshape U.S. Soft Power Projection” by CCA Senior Fellow Alvin W. Graylin on the Center for China Analysis's Substack.
3. Beijing Congratulates Min Aung Hlaing on His Election as Myanmar’s President
What Happened: The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning congratulated Min Aung Hlaing on his election as Myanmar's new president, after winning over half of the votes in a carefully controlled election. Min Aung Hlaing had previously served as the Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Defence Services from 2011 to 2026, and seized power from a democratically elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi in the 2021 coup d'état.
Why It Matters: Myanmar has long been strategically important to China, given its overland access to the Indian Ocean via the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) and the deep-sea port of Kyaukphyu, currently under construction. Beijing will likely use the election as an opening to deepen supply chain integration while demanding security guarantees and maintaining economic ties with rebel groups. For one, the rebel-controlled Kachin State, which lies to the north of the country and borders China and India, features a significant concentration of heavy rare earth elements, which play a pivotal role in renewable technologies and defense. The mining of these elements surged in the aftermath of the coup and has amplified the geopolitical salience of Myanmar for China's foreign policy — especially in light of possible rapprochement between the newly “elected” government and Western states in search of diversification in their rare earth supplies.
By Brian Wong, Non-Resident Honorary Fellow, Center for China Analysis
Learn More: Read “Military Elections Will Not Resolve Myanmar’s Deeper Problems” by Dr. Hunter Marston.
4. Cuba Deepens Reliance on China’s Clean Technology
What Happened: Last month, Cuba experienced two nationwide blackouts within a single week, underscoring the persistent instability of its electricity grid. In light of the longstanding U.S. embargo, tightened under the Trump administration, Havana seeks to secure energy supplies, and Beijing has emerged as a key provider of clean energy technology. Reports indicate that China supplied Cuba with one gigawatt of photovoltaic panels in 2025, alongside a sharp rise in battery imports to US$56 million, up from US$7.3 million in 2024.
Why It Matters: Amid ongoing U.S. energy constraints, Cuba’s uptake of Chinese energy technologies offers a potential pathway to scale up its energy supply, underscoring China’s growing geopolitical relevance as a competitive supplier of alternative energy solutions. More broadly, it highlights Beijing’s expanding role as countries elsewhere seek to close urgent energy gaps in the wake of the war in Iran.
By Taylah Bland, Fellow on Climate and the Environment, Center for China Analysis (@Taylahbland)
Learn More: Read CCA’s report, “The Evolving Politics of Climate Change in China,” by CCA Senior Fellow on Chinese Politics, Guoguang Wu, and CCA Fellow on Chinese Politics, Neil Thomas.
5. Beijing Links Rights Protection to Stability
What Happened: During a recent inspection in Liaoning, Chen Wenqing, China's top security official, urged local governments to step up efforts to identify and resolve social disputes, protect citizens’ legal rights, and maintain stability. He stressed integrating “rights protection” with “stability maintenance,” targeting flashpoints such as family, neighborhood, and land-related conflicts, and called for stronger early intervention mechanisms to prevent extreme incidents. By 2025, China had established 2,848 county-level social governance centers, which have handled over 10.7 million disputes.
Why It Matters: Before 2012, China saw roughly 100,000 mass incidents annually, underscoring persistent tensions between rights protection and stability maintenance. While Beijing now releases fewer figures, some Chinese analysts believe improved grassroots governance has reduced such incidents. More importantly, Xi Jinping in 2014 reframed the relationship, arguing that “rights protection is the foundation of stability, and stability is its guarantee,” seeking to reconcile what were once treated as competing priorities. As uncertainty mounts, Beijing’s ability to maintain this delicate balance remains an open question — particularly as some Western reports, such as those by Freedom House, indicate a surge in domestic incidents throughout 2025.
By Lobsang Tsering, Senior Research Associate on Chinese Politics, Center for China Analysis
Learn More: Read “The 19 Percent Revisited: How Youth Unemployment Has Changed Chinese Society” by Barclay Bram, CCA Fellow on Chinese Society.